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Definitive Analysis

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Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,125.76 - $2,672.14$2,504.19
Multi-Stage$399.34 - $436.72$417.69
Blended Fair Value$1,460.94
Current Price$127.00
Upside1,050.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS110.68%111.86%9.3363.0734.993.521.120.220.660.020.040.01
YoY Growth---85.21%80.25%892.83%213.56%400.25%-65.86%3,632.26%-50.79%200.00%133.33%
Dividend Yield--6.69%45.44%11.59%1.11%0.85%0.32%2.26%0.06%0.13%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,362.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,455.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)906.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)472.42295.26177.16
Cash Retained (M)906.50906.50906.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-472.42-295.26-177.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)434.08611.24729.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)175.80175.80175.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.473.484.15
LTM Dividend per Share8.288.288.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.473.484.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.7511.7612.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,125.76$2,504.19$2,672.14
Upside / Downside786.42%1,871.80%2,004.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,362.102,515.642,679.152,853.303,038.763,236.283,333.37
Payout Ratio61.62%67.30%72.97%78.65%84.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,455.601,692.991,955.082,244.102,562.422,912.653,083.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,574.621,589.551,604.47
Year 2 PV (M)1,691.261,723.481,756.00
Year 3 PV (M)1,805.561,857.391,910.20
Year 4 PV (M)1,917.541,991.282,067.13
Year 5 PV (M)2,027.242,125.162,226.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)61,187.6764,143.0567,211.55
Equity Value (M)70,203.8973,429.9176,776.18
Shares Outstanding (M)175.80175.80175.80
Fair Value$399.34$417.69$436.72
Upside / Downside214.44%228.89%243.88%

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