Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.25 - $21.85$17.80
Multi-Stage$30.22 - $33.31$31.74
Blended Fair Value$24.77
Current Price$13.62
Upside81.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.200.400.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-49.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.04%5.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)326.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.2040.7524.45
Cash Retained (M)290.00290.00290.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.20-40.75-24.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)224.80249.25265.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.99206.99206.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.201.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.201.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.381.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.25$17.80$21.85
Upside / Downside4.61%30.66%60.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)326.00322.74319.51316.32313.15310.02319.32
Payout Ratio11.04%26.83%42.63%58.42%74.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.0086.61136.19184.78232.39279.02295.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)80.3781.1982.01
Year 2 PV (M)117.30119.70122.13
Year 3 PV (M)147.69152.26156.92
Year 4 PV (M)172.37179.52186.88
Year 5 PV (M)192.07202.07212.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,545.835,834.616,135.30
Equity Value (M)6,255.636,569.356,895.73
Shares Outstanding (M)206.99206.99206.99
Fair Value$30.22$31.74$33.31
Upside / Downside121.89%133.02%144.59%

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