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Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.70 - $106.30$84.69
Multi-Stage$120.82 - $132.70$126.65
Blended Fair Value$105.67
Current Price$111.00
Upside-4.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.99%0.00%3.123.032.952.872.742.562.362.171.951.49
YoY Growth--2.86%2.70%2.88%4.52%7.05%8.45%8.79%11.24%31.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.78%4.16%3.56%4.83%4.25%3.43%3.59%2.88%2.88%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,110.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,982.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,128.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,622.001,013.75608.25
Cash Retained (M)4,128.004,128.004,128.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,622.00-1,013.75-608.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,506.003,114.253,519.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,256.751,256.751,256.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.482.80
LTM Dividend per Share3.173.173.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.482.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.165.655.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Fair Value$66.70$84.69$106.30
Upside / Downside-39.91%-23.70%-4.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,110.008,146.788,183.748,220.868,258.148,295.608,544.47
Payout Ratio49.10%57.28%65.46%73.64%81.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,982.004,666.475,357.076,053.836,756.817,466.047,903.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Year 1 PV (M)4,311.704,355.054,398.41
Year 2 PV (M)4,573.484,665.914,759.27
Year 3 PV (M)4,775.404,920.905,069.33
Year 4 PV (M)4,924.715,125.795,332.97
Year 5 PV (M)5,027.935,285.845,554.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)128,233.06134,810.89141,655.94
Equity Value (M)151,846.28159,164.40166,770.15
Shares Outstanding (M)1,256.751,256.751,256.75
Fair Value$120.82$126.65$132.70
Upside / Downside8.85%14.10%19.55%

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