Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Gestamp Automoción, S.A. (GEST.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.52 - $57.63$33.42
Multi-Stage$8.24 - $9.02$8.62
Blended Fair Value$21.02
Current Price$3.29
Upside538.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.63%11.88%0.220.170.090.010.070.150.150.130.100.09
YoY Growth--30.54%83.15%1,113.79%-88.80%-53.46%-3.21%19.09%30.26%11.85%20.92%
Dividend Yield--8.65%5.86%2.25%0.24%1.59%6.38%2.87%1.94%1.84%1.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2320.7712.46
Cash Retained (M)81.7581.7581.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.23-20.77-12.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.5260.9869.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)569.35569.35569.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Fair Value$13.52$33.42$57.63
Upside / Downside311.08%915.69%1,651.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.16175.68185.75196.40207.66219.56226.15
Payout Ratio50.80%58.64%66.48%74.32%82.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.41103.02123.49145.97170.61197.60209.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Year 1 PV (M)95.7896.7097.61
Year 2 PV (M)106.75108.79110.86
Year 3 PV (M)117.31120.70124.16
Year 4 PV (M)127.48132.42137.50
Year 5 PV (M)137.28143.96150.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,105.624,305.404,512.89
Equity Value (M)4,690.224,907.985,133.93
Shares Outstanding (M)569.35569.35569.35
Fair Value$8.24$8.62$9.02
Upside / Downside150.39%162.02%174.08%

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