Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

FirstService Corporation (FSV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$249.82 - $700.22$656.21
Multi-Stage$95.70 - $104.83$100.18
Blended Fair Value$378.19
Current Price$190.49
Upside98.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.73%7.50%1.110.990.890.790.700.560.480.440.390.18
YoY Growth--12.22%11.96%11.78%13.69%24.51%17.38%9.56%10.79%114.99%-66.17%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.60%0.63%0.55%0.47%0.73%0.53%0.61%0.65%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7117.3210.39
Cash Retained (M)126.30126.30126.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.71-17.32-10.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.59108.98115.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)39.3539.3539.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.512.772.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.512.772.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.823.083.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$249.82$656.21$700.22
Upside / Downside31.15%244.48%267.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.55147.55157.14167.36178.23189.82195.51
Payout Ratio8.84%25.07%41.31%57.54%73.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.2537.0064.9196.29131.48170.84180.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34.3534.6835.00
Year 2 PV (M)55.9657.0258.10
Year 3 PV (M)77.0879.2981.54
Year 4 PV (M)97.72101.48105.34
Year 5 PV (M)117.89123.59129.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,382.643,546.023,715.66
Equity Value (M)3,765.643,942.084,125.15
Shares Outstanding (M)39.3539.3539.35
Fair Value$95.70$100.18$104.83
Upside / Downside-49.76%-47.41%-44.97%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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