Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fortnox AB (publ) (FNOX.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.77 - $50.58$33.79
Multi-Stage$17.29 - $18.89$18.08
Blended Fair Value$25.93
Current Price$86.98
Upside-70.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.30%33.06%0.200.120.080.070.050.030.020.020.020.01
YoY Growth--67.12%49.59%6.99%52.59%42.98%40.16%27.67%25.00%23.08%8.33%
Dividend Yield--0.23%0.18%0.11%0.14%0.13%0.21%0.25%0.39%0.47%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)770.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)122.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)648.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)154.0096.2557.75
Cash Retained (M)648.00648.00648.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-154.00-96.25-57.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)494.00551.75590.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)609.85609.85609.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.900.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.900.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.77$33.79$50.58
Upside / Downside-72.67%-61.16%-41.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)770.00820.05873.35930.12990.581,054.971,086.62
Payout Ratio15.84%30.68%45.51%60.34%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)122.00251.55397.43561.21744.61949.471,005.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)226.57228.72230.87
Year 2 PV (M)322.42328.56334.76
Year 3 PV (M)410.08421.85433.84
Year 4 PV (M)490.06508.90528.29
Year 5 PV (M)562.83590.02618.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,533.128,945.279,373.20
Equity Value (M)10,545.0811,023.3211,519.20
Shares Outstanding (M)609.85609.85609.85
Fair Value$17.29$18.08$18.89
Upside / Downside-80.12%-79.22%-78.28%

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