Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lisi S.A. (FII.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.51 - $23.45$19.93
Multi-Stage$35.14 - $38.73$36.90
Blended Fair Value$28.41
Current Price$37.80
Upside-24.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.53%-2.25%0.310.170.330.160.000.500.550.510.440.42
YoY Growth--77.53%-48.14%107.31%0.00%-100.00%-8.15%6.81%15.73%5.97%9.24%
Dividend Yield--1.39%0.73%1.71%0.57%0.00%1.68%2.68%1.29%1.45%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.7214.828.89
Cash Retained (M)86.5086.5086.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.72-14.82-8.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.7871.6777.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.4046.4046.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.351.541.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.351.541.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.042.242.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-4.25%-3.25%-2.25%
Fair Value$16.51$19.93$23.45
Upside / Downside-56.32%-47.27%-37.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.59114.73111.01107.40103.91100.54103.55
Payout Ratio27.06%39.65%52.24%64.82%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.0945.4957.9969.6280.4490.4895.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-4.25%-3.25%-2.25%
Year 1 PV (M)41.8442.2842.71
Year 2 PV (M)49.0550.0851.12
Year 3 PV (M)54.1655.8857.63
Year 4 PV (M)57.5560.0062.52
Year 5 PV (M)59.5462.7266.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,368.351,441.321,517.36
Equity Value (M)1,630.501,712.261,797.36
Shares Outstanding (M)46.4046.4046.40
Fair Value$35.14$36.90$38.73
Upside / Downside-7.05%-2.39%2.47%

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