Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

FIBRA Prologis (FIBRAPL14.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.17 - $310.73$183.34
Multi-Stage$82.38 - $90.08$86.16
Blended Fair Value$134.75
Current Price$70.73
Upside90.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.79%0.00%0.660.630.520.430.390.380.360.170.020.00
YoY Growth--3.61%21.71%20.68%11.68%2.73%4.50%108.29%942.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.88%1.03%1.07%1.13%1.35%1.20%0.64%0.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,605.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,228.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,376.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,321.022,700.641,620.38
Cash Retained (M)19,376.6719,376.6719,376.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,321.02-2,700.64-1,620.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,055.6516,676.0317,756.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,067.284,067.284,067.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.704.104.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.704.104.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.254.654.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.17$183.34$310.73
Upside / Downside71.32%159.22%339.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,605.0923,009.4224,505.0326,097.8627,794.2229,600.8430,488.87
Payout Ratio10.31%26.25%42.19%58.13%74.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,228.426,040.3110,338.3315,169.5720,585.1926,640.7628,202.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,479.495,531.425,583.36
Year 2 PV (M)8,507.698,669.748,833.32
Year 3 PV (M)11,324.4111,649.4911,980.74
Year 4 PV (M)13,940.4914,476.6015,028.03
Year 5 PV (M)16,366.3017,156.7917,977.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)279,450.52292,948.08306,962.23
Equity Value (M)335,068.89350,432.14366,365.23
Shares Outstanding (M)4,067.284,067.284,067.28
Fair Value$82.38$86.16$90.08
Upside / Downside16.47%21.81%27.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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