Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$233.34 - $1,356.28$433.27
Multi-Stage$135.73 - $148.49$141.99
Blended Fair Value$287.63
Current Price$63.56
Upside352.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.10%0.00%1.151.030.890.750.670.280.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.13%15.29%18.53%11.98%136.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.75%2.23%1.83%1.42%1.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)702.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)121.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)580.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)140.5887.8652.72
Cash Retained (M)580.92580.92580.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-140.58-87.86-52.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)440.34493.06528.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.07103.07103.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.274.785.12
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.274.785.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.465.976.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$233.34$433.27$1,356.28
Upside / Downside267.11%581.67%2,033.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)702.89748.57797.23849.05904.24963.02991.91
Payout Ratio17.35%31.88%46.41%60.94%75.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)121.97238.66370.01517.42682.44866.71917.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)218.98221.05223.13
Year 2 PV (M)311.49317.42323.41
Year 3 PV (M)399.65411.13422.82
Year 4 PV (M)483.63502.23521.36
Year 5 PV (M)563.56590.78619.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,011.5712,591.7313,194.10
Equity Value (M)13,988.8714,634.3415,303.85
Shares Outstanding (M)103.07103.07103.07
Fair Value$135.73$141.99$148.49
Upside / Downside113.54%123.40%133.62%

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