Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Enerplus Corporation (ERF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.83 - $61.57$42.82
Multi-Stage$26.61 - $29.12$27.84
Blended Fair Value$35.33
Current Price$19.62
Upside80.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS10.67%-11.80%0.230.190.150.090.100.140.110.120.450.93
YoY Growth--16.84%28.85%62.26%-6.73%-27.15%26.90%-12.48%-72.27%-52.28%16.77%
Dividend Yield--1.16%1.35%1.19%1.48%4.81%1.19%0.74%1.15%8.72%7.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)384.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)334.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.9548.0928.85
Cash Retained (M)334.84334.84334.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.95-48.09-28.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)257.89286.75305.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.40213.40213.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.211.341.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.211.341.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.441.581.67
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Fair Value$30.83$42.82$61.57
Upside / Downside57.14%118.25%213.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)384.73405.17426.70449.38473.26498.41513.36
Payout Ratio12.97%28.37%43.78%59.19%74.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.89114.96186.81265.97353.02448.57474.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)104.28105.28106.28
Year 2 PV (M)153.72156.68159.67
Year 3 PV (M)198.52204.29210.16
Year 4 PV (M)239.02248.32257.88
Year 5 PV (M)275.50288.96302.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,708.574,938.635,177.60
Equity Value (M)5,679.615,942.156,214.53
Shares Outstanding (M)213.40213.40213.40
Fair Value$26.61$27.84$29.12
Upside / Downside35.65%41.92%48.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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