Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.45 - $46.16$38.53
Multi-Stage$49.08 - $53.76$51.38
Blended Fair Value$44.95
Current Price$131.18
Upside-65.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.28%-0.62%2.102.122.112.162.142.132.132.172.192.17
YoY Growth---0.75%0.25%-2.04%1.07%0.08%0.00%-1.63%-0.81%0.98%-3.31%
Dividend Yield--1.60%1.71%2.17%2.25%2.30%2.65%2.80%3.63%3.14%3.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,293.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,192.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,101.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)458.60286.63171.98
Cash Retained (M)1,101.001,101.001,101.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-458.60-286.63-171.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)642.40814.38929.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)566.68566.68566.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.441.64
LTM Dividend per Share2.102.102.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.441.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.243.543.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-0.96%0.04%1.04%
Fair Value$31.45$38.53$46.16
Upside / Downside-76.02%-70.63%-64.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,293.002,293.862,294.732,295.592,296.452,297.322,366.24
Payout Ratio51.98%59.59%67.19%74.79%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,192.001,366.851,541.841,716.961,892.212,067.592,188.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-0.96%0.04%1.04%
Year 1 PV (M)1,238.841,251.351,263.86
Year 2 PV (M)1,266.561,292.271,318.24
Year 3 PV (M)1,278.331,317.441,357.35
Year 4 PV (M)1,276.861,329.221,383.17
Year 5 PV (M)1,264.541,329.691,397.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,486.5722,593.4723,745.52
Equity Value (M)27,811.7129,113.4430,465.62
Shares Outstanding (M)566.68566.68566.68
Fair Value$49.08$51.38$53.76
Upside / Downside-62.59%-60.84%-59.02%

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