Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk (ELPI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$239.07 - $340.78$289.06
Multi-Stage$378.71 - $415.30$396.65
Blended Fair Value$342.86
Current Price$350.00
Upside-2.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%6.304.160.00103.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--51.43%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.55%0.00%38.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262,373.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106,312.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)156,061.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52,474.6032,796.6319,677.98
Cash Retained (M)156,061.00156,061.00156,061.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-52,474.60-32,796.63-19,677.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)103,586.40123,264.38136,383.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,412.007,412.007,412.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.9816.6318.40
LTM Dividend per Share14.3414.3414.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.9816.6318.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.3230.9732.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$239.07$289.06$340.78
Upside / Downside-31.69%-17.41%-2.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262,373.00259,749.27257,151.78254,580.26252,034.46249,514.11256,999.54
Payout Ratio40.52%50.42%60.31%70.21%80.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106,312.00130,953.97155,092.47178,735.11201,889.39224,562.70237,724.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)118,267.71119,474.52120,681.33
Year 2 PV (M)126,498.60129,093.38131,714.50
Year 3 PV (M)131,659.55135,731.21139,885.97
Year 4 PV (M)134,308.50139,874.96145,612.68
Year 5 PV (M)134,919.63141,945.20149,260.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,161,338.862,273,884.792,391,071.07
Equity Value (M)2,806,992.852,940,004.073,078,226.00
Shares Outstanding (M)7,412.007,412.007,412.00
Fair Value$378.71$396.65$415.30
Upside / Downside8.20%13.33%18.66%

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