Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper and Aluminium Industry S.A. (ELHA.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.24 - $67.44$63.20
Multi-Stage$20.78 - $22.79$21.77
Blended Fair Value$42.48
Current Price$2.49
Upside1,606.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.92%111.75%0.040.060.030.030.030.030.000.010.020.00
YoY Growth---33.33%100.00%20.00%-16.67%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-28.07%2,791.75%2,685.95%
Dividend Yield--1.90%3.18%1.82%1.43%1.35%3.15%0.00%0.80%3.29%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.4415.909.54
Cash Retained (M)112.16112.16112.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.44-15.90-9.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.7396.27102.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)375.06375.06375.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate4.70%4.70%4.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.24$63.20$67.44
Upside / Downside2,198.71%2,438.05%2,608.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.18135.45144.25153.63163.61174.25179.47
Payout Ratio11.81%27.44%43.08%58.72%74.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.0237.1762.1590.21121.66156.82166.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.70%4.70%4.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)35.1735.5035.84
Year 2 PV (M)55.6456.6957.76
Year 3 PV (M)76.4178.6080.84
Year 4 PV (M)97.50101.25105.11
Year 5 PV (M)118.91124.65130.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,409.047,766.908,138.45
Equity Value (M)7,792.668,163.608,548.61
Shares Outstanding (M)375.06375.06375.06
Fair Value$20.78$21.77$22.79
Upside / Downside734.42%774.13%815.36%

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