Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN-PA.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.32 - $262.71$202.36
Multi-Stage$32.76 - $35.84$34.27
Blended Fair Value$118.32
Current Price$24.99
Upside373.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS2.60%0.00%0.510.430.410.290.320.450.380.210.090.05
YoY Growth--18.57%5.80%40.84%-8.51%-29.68%16.78%82.61%139.29%61.71%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.04%1.74%1.62%1.14%1.70%2.04%1.99%0.83%0.40%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)466.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)179.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)286.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.2458.2734.96
Cash Retained (M)286.80286.80286.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.24-58.27-34.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)193.56228.53251.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)352.92352.92352.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.061.161.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$69.32$202.36$262.71
Upside / Downside177.40%709.78%951.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)466.20496.50528.77563.14599.75638.73657.89
Payout Ratio38.48%48.78%59.09%69.39%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)179.40242.22312.44390.78477.98574.86608.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)224.02226.14228.27
Year 2 PV (M)267.26272.35277.49
Year 3 PV (M)309.15318.02327.07
Year 4 PV (M)349.72363.17377.01
Year 5 PV (M)389.01407.80427.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,023.7910,507.9411,010.62
Equity Value (M)11,562.9512,095.4312,647.76
Shares Outstanding (M)352.92352.92352.92
Fair Value$32.76$34.27$35.84
Upside / Downside31.11%37.15%43.41%

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