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Definitive Analysis

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Duke Capital Limited (DUKE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.02 - $10.08$8.52
Multi-Stage$10.85 - $11.94$11.38
Blended Fair Value$9.95
Current Price$0.28
Upside3,492.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.29%0.00%0.030.030.030.020.010.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.29%4.96%51.02%141.29%-49.89%49.47%334.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.58%8.48%8.27%4.46%1.88%5.89%2.31%0.58%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)420.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)403.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.1452.5931.55
Cash Retained (M)403.36403.36403.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.14-52.59-31.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)319.22350.78371.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)417.92417.92417.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.760.840.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.760.840.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.02$8.52$10.08
Upside / Downside2,435.72%2,975.45%3,539.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)420.71416.50412.33408.21404.13400.09412.09
Payout Ratio4.12%21.30%38.47%55.65%72.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.3488.70158.64227.16294.30360.08381.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)80.3881.2082.02
Year 2 PV (M)130.27132.95135.64
Year 3 PV (M)169.05174.28179.61
Year 4 PV (M)198.47206.69215.17
Year 5 PV (M)220.05231.51243.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,735.343,929.844,132.37
Equity Value (M)4,533.564,756.474,988.26
Shares Outstanding (M)417.92417.92417.92
Fair Value$10.85$11.38$11.94
Upside / Downside3,816.23%4,008.79%4,209.02%

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