Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

DRDGOLD Limited (DRD.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$218.50 - $463.54$310.22
Multi-Stage$164.42 - $179.32$171.74
Blended Fair Value$240.98
Current Price$23.74
Upside915.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-5.25%49.75%1.532.601.831.822.282.010.000.150.180.90
YoY Growth---41.10%41.99%0.39%-19.91%13.53%0.00%-100.00%-16.60%-79.99%3,227.63%
Dividend Yield--6.45%16.42%9.19%18.48%15.26%7.44%0.00%4.11%4.33%10.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,276.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,335.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,941.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)655.35409.59245.76
Cash Retained (M)1,941.751,941.751,941.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-655.35-409.59-245.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,286.401,532.161,695.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)281.38281.38281.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.575.456.03
LTM Dividend per Share4.744.744.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.575.456.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3210.1910.77
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$218.50$310.22$463.54
Upside / Downside820.40%1,206.75%1,852.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,276.753,489.743,716.573,958.154,215.434,489.434,624.11
Payout Ratio40.74%50.59%60.44%70.30%80.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,335.001,765.572,246.482,782.453,378.604,040.494,277.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,590.021,605.091,620.17
Year 2 PV (M)1,821.961,856.661,891.69
Year 3 PV (M)2,032.262,090.602,150.05
Year 4 PV (M)2,222.322,307.792,395.69
Year 5 PV (M)2,393.442,509.042,629.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,205.9437,954.7139,770.40
Equity Value (M)46,265.9548,323.8950,457.06
Shares Outstanding (M)281.38281.38281.38
Fair Value$164.42$171.74$179.32
Upside / Downside592.60%623.41%655.34%

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