Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Colt CZ Group SE (CZG.PR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$247.28 - $371.93$306.23
Multi-Stage$496.69 - $545.98$520.85
Blended Fair Value$413.54
Current Price$772.00
Upside-46.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-14.20%0.00%4.5815.2114.844.455.789.854.491.582.460.00
YoY Growth---69.87%2.49%233.33%-22.91%-41.39%119.61%183.33%-35.71%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%2.48%2.55%0.73%1.56%3.40%1.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,663.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)846.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)816.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)332.61207.88124.73
Cash Retained (M)816.11816.11816.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-332.61-207.88-124.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)483.50608.23691.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.8356.8356.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.5110.7012.17
LTM Dividend per Share14.9014.9014.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.5110.7012.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend23.4125.6027.07
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$247.28$306.23$371.93
Upside / Downside-67.97%-60.33%-51.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,663.061,646.431,629.961,613.661,597.531,581.551,629.00
Payout Ratio50.93%58.74%66.56%74.37%82.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)846.95967.141,084.841,200.091,312.931,423.401,506.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)892.42901.53910.63
Year 2 PV (M)923.70942.64961.78
Year 3 PV (M)942.89972.051,001.80
Year 4 PV (M)951.85991.301,031.96
Year 5 PV (M)952.211,001.801,053.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,564.6924,791.7626,069.42
Equity Value (M)28,227.7629,601.0831,029.03
Shares Outstanding (M)56.8356.8356.83
Fair Value$496.69$520.85$545.98
Upside / Downside-35.66%-32.53%-29.28%

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