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Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.45 - $24.40$18.79
Multi-Stage$15.92 - $17.43$16.66
Blended Fair Value$17.73
Current Price$21.66
Upside-18.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.210.210.160.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.26%34.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.91%0.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.444.032.42
Cash Retained (M)25.3525.3525.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.44-4.03-2.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.9121.3322.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.6227.6227.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate2.64%3.64%4.64%
Fair Value$14.45$18.79$24.40
Upside / Downside-33.29%-13.23%12.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32.2233.3934.6035.8637.1738.5239.67
Payout Ratio21.30%35.04%48.78%62.52%76.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.8611.7016.8822.4228.3434.6736.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate2.64%3.64%4.64%
Year 1 PV (M)10.6010.7110.81
Year 2 PV (M)13.8714.1414.41
Year 3 PV (M)16.6917.1917.69
Year 4 PV (M)19.1319.8820.66
Year 5 PV (M)21.2122.2623.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)358.27376.06394.56
Equity Value (M)439.77460.24481.49
Shares Outstanding (M)27.6227.6227.62
Fair Value$15.92$16.66$17.43
Upside / Downside-26.50%-23.08%-19.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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