Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk (CSAP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,793.53 - $4,234.26$3,968.12
Multi-Stage$620.81 - $679.65$649.69
Blended Fair Value$2,308.90
Current Price$308.00
Upside649.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.41%10.64%7.008.637.063.141.573.142.852.501.272.55
YoY Growth---18.88%22.22%125.00%100.00%-50.00%10.00%14.29%96.00%-50.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.71%1.50%0.92%0.64%0.39%0.83%0.49%0.50%0.28%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121,000.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36,940.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)84,060.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24,200.1615,125.109,075.06
Cash Retained (M)84,060.1984,060.1984,060.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-24,200.16-15,125.10-9,075.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)59,860.0268,935.0874,985.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,683.185,683.185,683.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.5312.1313.19
LTM Dividend per Share6.506.506.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.5312.1313.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.0318.6319.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,793.53$3,968.12$4,234.26
Upside / Downside482.31%1,188.35%1,274.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121,000.82128,865.88137,242.16146,162.90155,663.49165,781.62170,755.06
Payout Ratio30.53%42.42%54.32%66.21%78.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36,940.6454,669.2874,546.5796,776.94121,582.29149,203.45157,948.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)50,849.7551,331.7451,813.72
Year 2 PV (M)64,493.8965,722.3166,962.33
Year 3 PV (M)77,876.8180,112.3882,390.32
Year 4 PV (M)91,002.2394,501.9298,101.59
Year 5 PV (M)103,873.80108,890.95114,100.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,140,051.423,291,717.083,449,187.34
Equity Value (M)3,528,147.903,692,276.373,862,555.41
Shares Outstanding (M)5,683.185,683.185,683.18
Fair Value$620.81$649.69$679.65
Upside / Downside101.56%110.94%120.66%

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