Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Companhia de Seguros Alianca da Bahia (CSAB3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.94 - $5.00$4.52
Multi-Stage$11.06 - $12.43$11.73
Blended Fair Value$8.12
Current Price$30.07
Upside-72.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS-33.60%-8.76%0.991.803.061.792.537.644.604.043.312.07
YoY Growth---45.21%-41.27%70.85%-29.16%-66.86%65.99%13.97%21.94%59.66%-15.88%
Dividend Yield--3.47%2.77%6.24%3.66%5.22%13.06%7.80%7.34%10.03%7.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.181.991.19
Cash Retained (M)11.2311.2311.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.18-1.99-1.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.059.2410.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.068.068.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.001.151.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.001.151.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate-23.60%-22.60%-21.60%
Fair Value$3.94$4.52$5.00
Upside / Downside-86.89%-84.98%-83.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.9112.329.537.385.714.424.55
Payout Ratio29.45%41.56%53.67%65.78%77.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.695.125.124.854.453.984.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate-23.60%-22.60%-21.60%
Year 1 PV (M)4.724.784.85
Year 2 PV (M)4.354.474.59
Year 3 PV (M)3.813.964.12
Year 4 PV (M)3.223.393.57
Year 5 PV (M)2.662.843.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)70.4175.1480.12
Equity Value (M)89.1894.59100.27
Shares Outstanding (M)8.068.068.06
Fair Value$11.06$11.73$12.43
Upside / Downside-63.22%-60.99%-58.65%

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