Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $11.72 - $16.61 | $14.13 |
| Multi-Stage | $18.48 - $20.24 | $19.34 |
| Blended Fair Value | $16.74 | |
| Current Price | $32.05 | |
| Upside | -47.78% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -19.65% | 0.00% | 0.98 | 3.10 | 1.58 | 2.84 | 0.85 | 2.93 | 4.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -68.41% | 96.58% | -44.45% | 234.11% | -70.94% | -38.88% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.10% | 10.96% | 9.85% | 13.71% | 4.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 991.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 521.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 470.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 198.20 | 123.88 | 74.33 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 470.00 | 470.00 | 470.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -198.20 | -123.88 | -74.33 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 271.80 | 346.13 | 395.68 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 554.98 | 554.98 | 554.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.43 | 1.56 | 1.65 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.95% | 9.95% | 9.95% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $11.72 | $14.13 | $16.61 |
| Upside / Downside | -63.43% | -55.91% | -48.18% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 991.00 | 981.09 | 971.28 | 961.57 | 951.95 | 942.43 | 970.70 |
| Payout Ratio | 52.57% | 60.06% | 67.54% | 75.03% | 82.51% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 521.00 | 589.23 | 656.04 | 721.46 | 785.50 | 848.19 | 897.90 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.95% | 9.95% | 9.95% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 530.51 | 535.93 | 541.34 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 531.81 | 542.72 | 553.74 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 526.56 | 542.84 | 559.46 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 516.17 | 537.57 | 559.62 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 501.83 | 527.96 | 555.17 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 7,648.51 | 8,046.78 | 8,461.48 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,255.39 | 10,733.80 | 11,230.80 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 554.98 | 554.98 | 554.98 |
| Fair Value | $18.48 | $19.34 | $20.24 |
| Upside / Downside | -42.34% | -39.65% | -36.86% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |