Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Caisse Régionale de Crédit Agricole Mutuel Alpes Provence Société coopérative (CRAP.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$492.24 - $871.38$652.69
Multi-Stage$738.72 - $811.58$774.45
Blended Fair Value$713.57
Current Price$94.51
Upside655.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.57%3.04%3.452.962.331.422.352.512.322.151.902.28
YoY Growth--16.54%26.83%63.72%-39.50%-6.13%8.03%7.73%13.50%-16.79%-10.67%
Dividend Yield--4.10%4.19%3.79%1.80%2.34%1.99%2.13%2.17%2.29%3.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)219.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.2833.9320.36
Cash Retained (M)219.60219.60219.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.28-33.93-20.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)165.32185.68199.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.447.447.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share22.2224.9526.78
LTM Dividend per Share6.966.966.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share22.2224.9526.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend29.1831.9233.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.04%2.04%3.04%
Fair Value$492.24$652.69$871.38
Upside / Downside420.84%590.60%822.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.40276.94282.60288.37294.25300.26309.27
Payout Ratio19.09%33.27%47.45%61.63%75.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.8092.13134.09177.73223.09270.24286.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.04%2.04%3.04%
Year 1 PV (M)85.2486.0886.92
Year 2 PV (M)114.77117.05119.36
Year 3 PV (M)140.73144.95149.26
Year 4 PV (M)163.43170.00176.76
Year 5 PV (M)183.15192.39202.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,809.245,051.985,304.42
Equity Value (M)5,496.565,762.466,038.73
Shares Outstanding (M)7.447.447.44
Fair Value$738.72$774.45$811.58
Upside / Downside681.63%719.44%758.73%

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