Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $4.87 - $7.49 | $6.09 |
| Multi-Stage | $10.88 - $11.97 | $11.41 |
| Blended Fair Value | $8.75 | |
| Current Price | $5.05 | |
| Upside | 73.31% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -10.44% | 0.00% | 0.46 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -30.29% | 14.26% | -17.39% | -14.76% | 2.71% | -0.32% | 3.75% | 0.15% | 25.43% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.83% | 9.05% | 6.85% | 7.49% | 8.10% | 6.19% | 6.46% | 5.48% | 5.55% | 6.66% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 518.66 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 328.49 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 190.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 103.73 | 64.83 | 38.90 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 190.17 | 190.17 | 190.17 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -103.73 | -64.83 | -38.90 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 86.44 | 125.34 | 151.27 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 967.00 | 967.00 | 967.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.63% | 6.63% | 6.63% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $4.87 | $6.09 | $7.49 |
| Upside / Downside | -3.49% | 20.61% | 48.22% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 518.66 | 513.47 | 508.34 | 503.25 | 498.22 | 493.24 | 508.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 63.33% | 68.67% | 74.00% | 79.33% | 84.67% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 328.49 | 352.59 | 376.17 | 399.25 | 421.83 | 443.91 | 469.93 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.63% | 6.63% | 6.63% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 327.33 | 330.67 | 334.01 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 324.21 | 330.86 | 337.58 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 319.45 | 329.33 | 339.41 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 313.34 | 326.32 | 339.71 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 306.12 | 322.06 | 338.66 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 8,932.19 | 9,397.31 | 9,881.61 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,522.64 | 11,036.56 | 11,570.98 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 967.00 | 967.00 | 967.00 |
| Fair Value | $10.88 | $11.41 | $11.97 |
| Upside / Downside | 115.48% | 126.00% | 136.95% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |