Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Clas Ohlson AB (publ) (CLAS-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$252.19 - $507.95$351.39
Multi-Stage$288.24 - $315.94$301.83
Blended Fair Value$326.61
Current Price$341.00
Upside-4.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.38%-1.05%4.221.4912.916.216.206.206.196.195.675.19
YoY Growth--183.68%-88.47%108.03%0.10%0.00%0.10%0.03%9.12%9.27%10.58%
Dividend Yield--1.24%0.88%15.06%5.40%7.02%6.27%7.13%8.00%3.42%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)944.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)269.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)674.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)188.80118.0070.80
Cash Retained (M)674.60674.60674.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-188.80-118.00-70.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)485.80556.60603.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63.7963.7963.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.628.739.47
LTM Dividend per Share4.224.224.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.628.739.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.8412.9513.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Fair Value$252.19$351.39$507.95
Upside / Downside-26.04%3.05%48.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)944.00979.131,015.571,053.371,092.571,133.231,167.23
Payout Ratio28.54%40.83%53.12%65.42%77.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)269.40399.78539.50689.06849.011,019.911,079.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)368.16371.74375.33
Year 2 PV (M)457.52466.47475.51
Year 3 PV (M)538.12553.99570.17
Year 4 PV (M)610.58634.71659.54
Year 5 PV (M)675.46708.98743.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,736.9516,518.0117,329.78
Equity Value (M)18,386.7919,253.9020,154.15
Shares Outstanding (M)63.7963.7963.79
Fair Value$288.24$301.83$315.94
Upside / Downside-15.47%-11.49%-7.35%

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