Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (CJA.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.24 - $130.97$82.47
Multi-Stage$39.87 - $43.56$41.68
Blended Fair Value$62.08
Current Price$39.72
Upside56.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.56%19.25%0.530.480.400.350.280.230.190.170.150.11
YoY Growth--11.55%19.94%14.42%23.03%24.39%18.97%11.64%11.77%39.58%19.79%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.26%1.04%0.97%0.71%0.65%0.62%0.74%0.64%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,572.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)517.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,054.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)514.42321.51192.91
Cash Retained (M)2,054.402,054.402,054.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-514.42-321.51-192.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,539.981,732.891,861.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)953.45953.45953.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.621.821.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.621.821.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.162.362.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.24$82.47$130.97
Upside / Downside41.60%107.63%229.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,572.102,739.292,917.343,106.973,308.923,524.003,629.72
Payout Ratio20.13%34.10%48.08%62.05%76.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)517.70934.151,402.561,927.902,515.623,171.603,357.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)844.72852.73860.74
Year 2 PV (M)1,146.871,168.721,190.77
Year 3 PV (M)1,425.531,466.461,508.15
Year 4 PV (M)1,682.041,746.721,813.26
Year 5 PV (M)1,917.632,010.252,106.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,001.0532,498.4134,053.08
Equity Value (M)38,017.8439,743.2941,532.41
Shares Outstanding (M)953.45953.45953.45
Fair Value$39.87$41.68$43.56
Upside / Downside0.39%4.94%9.67%

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