Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (CHE-UN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.96 - $26.63$19.06
Multi-Stage$23.14 - $25.39$24.24
Blended Fair Value$21.65
Current Price$13.44
Upside61.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.17%0.71%0.620.470.440.420.540.900.900.850.670.67
YoY Growth--32.02%5.99%5.41%-22.09%-40.00%0.00%6.75%25.54%0.33%15.75%
Dividend Yield--6.39%5.53%5.66%5.25%7.89%18.34%9.84%5.49%3.63%3.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2813.938.36
Cash Retained (M)32.3032.3032.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.28-13.93-8.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.0118.3723.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)123.14123.14123.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.790.84
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate1.12%2.12%3.12%
Fair Value$13.96$19.06$26.63
Upside / Downside3.91%41.83%98.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.41113.77116.18118.64121.15123.71127.42
Payout Ratio71.01%74.81%78.61%82.40%86.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.1285.1191.3297.76104.43111.34117.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate1.12%2.12%3.12%
Year 1 PV (M)79.2480.0280.81
Year 2 PV (M)79.1680.7382.32
Year 3 PV (M)78.8981.2683.67
Year 4 PV (M)78.4681.6184.86
Year 5 PV (M)77.8881.8185.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,456.132,580.012,708.84
Equity Value (M)2,849.772,985.453,126.39
Shares Outstanding (M)123.14123.14123.14
Fair Value$23.14$24.24$25.39
Upside / Downside72.19%80.39%88.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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