Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chubb Limited (CB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,243.26 - $4,694.57$3,651.12
Multi-Stage$575.77 - $630.38$602.57
Blended Fair Value$2,126.85
Current Price$282.25
Upside653.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.18%5.24%3.503.403.353.423.393.303.263.192.862.10
YoY Growth--3.01%1.38%-1.86%0.94%2.51%1.27%2.22%11.51%36.08%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.16%1.32%1.73%1.60%2.14%2.96%2.31%2.33%2.10%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,675.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,488.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,187.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,935.001,209.38725.63
Cash Retained (M)8,187.008,187.008,187.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,935.00-1,209.38-725.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,252.006,977.637,461.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.86409.86409.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share15.2517.0218.20
LTM Dividend per Share3.633.633.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share15.2517.0218.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8820.6521.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,243.26$3,651.12$4,694.57
Upside / Downside340.48%1,193.57%1,563.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,675.0010,303.8810,973.6311,686.9112,446.5613,255.5913,653.26
Payout Ratio15.38%30.30%45.23%60.15%75.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,488.003,122.474,963.147,029.909,344.3811,930.0312,629.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,888.032,915.412,942.78
Year 2 PV (M)4,245.844,326.714,408.34
Year 3 PV (M)5,562.365,722.045,884.74
Year 4 PV (M)6,838.547,101.537,372.04
Year 5 PV (M)8,075.298,465.338,870.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)208,375.81218,440.44228,890.27
Equity Value (M)235,985.87246,971.46258,368.47
Shares Outstanding (M)409.86409.86409.86
Fair Value$575.77$602.57$630.38
Upside / Downside103.99%113.49%123.34%

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