Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento - CASAN (CASN3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.93 - $18.29$10.58
Multi-Stage$4.71 - $5.15$4.92
Blended Fair Value$7.75
Current Price$10.45
Upside-25.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%13.12%0.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.010.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%256.88%-85.73%
Dividend Yield--0.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.07%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)349.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)291.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.8943.6826.21
Cash Retained (M)291.74291.74291.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.89-43.68-26.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.85248.06265.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.791,177.791,177.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.93$10.58$18.29
Upside / Downside-33.68%1.24%74.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)349.46372.17396.36422.13449.56478.79493.15
Payout Ratio16.52%31.21%45.91%60.61%75.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.72116.17181.97255.84338.54430.91456.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)105.47106.46107.46
Year 2 PV (M)149.99152.84155.73
Year 3 PV (M)191.44196.94202.54
Year 4 PV (M)229.99238.83247.93
Year 5 PV (M)265.77278.61291.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,602.034,824.315,055.09
Equity Value (M)5,544.685,797.996,060.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.791,177.791,177.79
Fair Value$4.71$4.92$5.15
Upside / Downside-54.95%-52.89%-50.76%

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