Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Budi Starch & Sweetener Tbk (BUDI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$648.75 - $3,690.06$1,186.90
Multi-Stage$565.30 - $619.71$592.00
Blended Fair Value$889.45
Current Price$220.00
Upside304.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.47%0.00%9.0014.018.006.006.005.004.002.500.000.00
YoY Growth---35.71%75.00%33.33%0.00%20.00%25.00%60.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.55%5.35%3.89%2.83%5.61%6.03%4.00%1.98%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88,642.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31,482.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)57,160.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17,728.4011,080.256,648.15
Cash Retained (M)57,160.0057,160.0057,160.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-17,728.40-11,080.25-6,648.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)39,431.6046,079.7550,511.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,497.074,497.074,497.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.7710.2511.23
LTM Dividend per Share7.007.007.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.7710.2511.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.7717.2518.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.79%4.79%5.79%
Fair Value$648.75$1,186.90$3,690.06
Upside / Downside194.89%439.50%1,577.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88,642.0092,885.4197,331.96101,991.37106,873.83111,990.02115,349.72
Payout Ratio35.52%46.41%57.31%68.21%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31,482.0043,110.6455,780.4969,564.6084,540.60100,791.02106,698.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.79%4.79%5.79%
Year 1 PV (M)40,164.8940,551.8940,938.88
Year 2 PV (M)48,417.9849,355.4950,302.00
Year 3 PV (M)56,256.7557,898.5959,572.07
Year 4 PV (M)63,696.2566,186.8368,749.76
Year 5 PV (M)70,750.9974,225.7777,835.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,262,888.992,374,025.962,489,487.27
Equity Value (M)2,542,175.852,662,244.542,786,885.73
Shares Outstanding (M)4,497.074,497.074,497.07
Fair Value$565.30$592.00$619.71
Upside / Downside156.95%169.09%181.69%

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