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Banco do Estado de Sergipe S.A. (BGIP3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$355.82 - $1,663.81$792.06
Multi-Stage$205.42 - $224.94$215.00
Blended Fair Value$503.53
Current Price$31.51
Upside1,498.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS192.21%37.39%2.321.541.741.020.130.010.181.380.030.83
YoY Growth--50.97%-11.80%71.43%665.86%1,118.67%-94.09%-86.62%5,297.91%-96.93%759.10%
Dividend Yield--8.60%6.25%6.63%4.22%0.34%0.02%0.50%3.14%0.10%7.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)136.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6921.6813.01
Cash Retained (M)136.83136.83136.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.69-21.68-13.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.14115.15123.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.6420.6420.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.955.586.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.771.771.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.955.586.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.727.357.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Fair Value$355.82$792.06$1,663.81
Upside / Downside1,029.24%2,413.69%5,180.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.45183.94195.06206.86219.37232.63239.61
Payout Ratio21.11%34.89%48.67%62.44%76.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.6264.1794.93129.17167.20209.37221.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Year 1 PV (M)59.3959.9660.52
Year 2 PV (M)81.3182.8784.44
Year 3 PV (M)102.40105.35108.36
Year 4 PV (M)122.67127.41132.28
Year 5 PV (M)142.16149.06156.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,732.983,914.084,102.13
Equity Value (M)4,240.914,438.714,643.95
Shares Outstanding (M)20.6420.6420.64
Fair Value$205.42$215.00$224.94
Upside / Downside551.92%582.33%613.88%

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