Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,050.50 - $4,544.62$3,761.88
Multi-Stage$6,475.74 - $7,131.40$6,797.10
Blended Fair Value$5,279.49
Current Price$2,380.00
Upside121.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.04%1.98%133.37124.7861.2540.28196.06147.82137.25101.6778.0183.37
YoY Growth--6.88%103.74%52.06%-79.46%32.64%7.70%35.01%30.33%-6.43%-23.93%
Dividend Yield--5.47%4.27%2.13%1.65%7.18%7.07%1.46%1.48%1.66%2.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,679,259.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,168,522.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,510,737.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)735,851.80459,907.38275,944.43
Cash Retained (M)2,510,737.002,510,737.002,510,737.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-735,851.80-459,907.38-275,944.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,774,885.202,050,829.632,234,792.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,773.559,773.559,773.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share181.60209.83228.66
LTM Dividend per Share119.56119.56119.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share181.60209.83228.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend301.16329.39348.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.58%-1.58%-0.58%
Fair Value$3,050.50$3,761.88$4,544.62
Upside / Downside28.17%58.06%90.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,679,259.003,621,016.683,563,696.323,507,283.343,451,763.383,397,122.293,499,035.96
Payout Ratio31.76%43.41%55.06%66.70%78.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,168,522.001,571,802.531,962,022.452,339,494.222,704,523.643,057,410.063,236,608.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.58%-1.58%-0.58%
Year 1 PV (M)1,453,579.501,468,500.711,483,421.92
Year 2 PV (M)1,677,975.391,712,601.541,747,581.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,850,309.581,907,877.611,966,627.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,978,126.282,060,608.542,145,643.76
Year 5 PV (M)2,068,034.252,176,379.282,289,218.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,262,958.8557,105,813.9360,066,590.35
Equity Value (M)63,290,983.8566,431,781.6069,699,083.26
Shares Outstanding (M)9,773.559,773.559,773.55
Fair Value$6,475.74$6,797.10$7,131.40
Upside / Downside172.09%185.59%199.64%

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