Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Buana Finance Tbk (BBLD.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$369.26 - $629.99$482.39
Multi-Stage$1,057.51 - $1,165.70$1,110.53
Blended Fair Value$796.46
Current Price$745.00
Upside6.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.39%-10.40%19.9815.996.004.000.0013.9915.9915.9917.9959.96
YoY Growth--25.00%166.67%50.00%0.00%-100.00%-12.50%0.00%-11.11%-70.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.33%2.91%1.18%0.99%0.00%3.19%3.52%3.14%2.10%4.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49,898.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)30,143.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,979.606,237.253,742.35
Cash Retained (M)30,143.0030,143.0030,143.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,979.60-6,237.25-3,742.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,163.4023,905.7526,400.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,645.801,645.801,645.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.2514.5316.04
LTM Dividend per Share12.0012.0012.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.2514.5316.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend24.2526.5328.04
WACC / Discount Rate5.16%5.16%5.16%
Growth Rate-1.32%-0.32%0.68%
Fair Value$369.26$482.39$629.99
Upside / Downside-50.44%-35.25%-15.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49,898.0049,739.2049,580.9149,423.1249,265.8349,109.0450,582.32
Payout Ratio39.59%49.67%59.75%69.84%79.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,755.0024,706.7629,626.8034,515.2839,372.3444,198.1446,788.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.16%5.16%5.16%
Growth Rate-1.32%-0.32%0.68%
Year 1 PV (M)23,257.9423,493.6323,729.31
Year 2 PV (M)26,254.0126,788.8027,328.98
Year 3 PV (M)28,792.3929,676.6030,578.73
Year 4 PV (M)30,918.1132,190.5433,501.84
Year 5 PV (M)32,672.4134,361.7436,120.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,598,546.961,681,200.281,767,237.68
Equity Value (M)1,740,441.811,827,711.581,918,496.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,645.801,645.801,645.80
Fair Value$1,057.51$1,110.53$1,165.70
Upside / Downside41.95%49.06%56.47%

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