Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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A&W Revenue Royalties Income Fund (AW-UN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.76 - $389.34$123.70
Multi-Stage$53.27 - $58.23$55.71
Blended Fair Value$89.70
Current Price$28.52
Upside214.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS8.19%6.27%1.921.871.631.381.531.301.241.171.081.06
YoY Growth--2.68%15.02%17.96%-10.17%18.44%4.59%6.00%8.24%2.00%1.22%
Dividend Yield--6.40%5.03%3.76%3.85%6.36%3.33%3.96%2.93%3.72%3.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.373.982.39
Cash Retained (M)2.262.262.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.37-3.98-2.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.11-1.72-0.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.0916.0916.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.26-0.11-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.841.841.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.26-0.11-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate4.27%5.27%6.27%
Fair Value$66.76$123.70$389.34
Upside / Downside134.06%333.74%1,265.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.8733.5535.3237.1839.1341.2042.43
Payout Ratio92.91%92.32%91.74%91.16%90.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.6130.9732.4033.8935.4537.0839.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate4.27%5.27%6.27%
Year 1 PV (M)28.7429.0229.29
Year 2 PV (M)27.9028.4428.98
Year 3 PV (M)27.0827.8728.67
Year 4 PV (M)26.2827.3128.36
Year 5 PV (M)25.5126.7628.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)721.84757.12793.77
Equity Value (M)857.35896.51937.13
Shares Outstanding (M)16.0916.0916.09
Fair Value$53.27$55.71$58.23
Upside / Downside86.80%95.33%104.18%

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