Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$272.22 - $626.46$397.58
Multi-Stage$199.31 - $217.43$208.21
Blended Fair Value$302.89
Current Price$326.60
Upside-7.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.06%11.01%5.404.804.203.903.853.503.303.002.652.17
YoY Growth--12.51%14.27%7.71%1.29%10.01%6.06%10.02%13.18%22.31%14.08%
Dividend Yield--1.80%1.57%1.69%1.53%1.53%1.86%1.63%1.66%1.44%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,682.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,285.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,397.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,936.401,835.251,101.15
Cash Retained (M)8,397.008,397.008,397.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,936.40-1,835.25-1,101.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,460.606,561.757,295.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,110.781,110.781,110.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.925.916.57
LTM Dividend per Share5.665.665.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.925.916.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.5711.5712.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$272.22$397.58$626.46
Upside / Downside-16.65%21.73%91.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,682.0015,636.3316,652.6917,735.1218,887.9020,115.6120,719.08
Payout Ratio42.81%52.25%61.68%71.12%80.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,285.008,169.3610,272.1312,613.7515,216.3818,104.0519,165.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,383.947,453.937,523.92
Year 2 PV (M)8,391.908,551.758,713.10
Year 3 PV (M)9,314.179,581.549,853.99
Year 4 PV (M)10,155.7310,546.2910,948.01
Year 5 PV (M)10,921.3311,448.8411,996.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)175,224.83183,688.26192,475.60
Equity Value (M)221,391.90231,270.60241,511.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,110.781,110.781,110.78
Fair Value$199.31$208.21$217.43
Upside / Downside-38.97%-36.25%-33.43%

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