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Definitive Analysis

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PT Asuransi Ramayana Tbk (ASRM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$157.85 - $302.01$215.74
Multi-Stage$161.28 - $176.78$168.88
Blended Fair Value$192.31
Current Price$368.00
Upside-47.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.43%5.19%15.8916.0513.4610.3413.2014.8017.2816.8116.5414.80
YoY Growth---1.01%19.23%30.17%-21.69%-10.77%-14.37%2.83%1.61%11.76%54.55%
Dividend Yield--5.16%4.17%3.32%2.59%3.47%3.91%8.17%7.94%7.82%7.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,274.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,274.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,454.871,534.29920.58
Cash Retained (M)11,274.3611,274.3611,274.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,454.87-1,534.29-920.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,819.499,740.0610,353.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,232.351,232.351,232.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.167.908.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.167.908.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.978.729.21
WACC / Discount Rate8.40%8.40%8.40%
Growth Rate3.19%4.19%5.19%
Fair Value$157.85$215.74$302.01
Upside / Downside-57.11%-41.37%-17.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,274.3612,789.0913,325.4013,884.2114,466.4415,073.1015,525.29
Payout Ratio8.15%24.52%40.89%57.26%73.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,000.003,135.585,448.527,949.9310,651.5613,565.7914,360.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.40%8.40%8.40%
Growth Rate3.19%4.19%5.19%
Year 1 PV (M)2,864.782,892.542,920.30
Year 2 PV (M)4,548.034,636.604,726.03
Year 3 PV (M)6,062.906,240.876,422.29
Year 4 PV (M)7,421.687,713.568,013.98
Year 5 PV (M)8,635.879,062.499,505.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)169,216.91177,576.38186,262.99
Equity Value (M)198,750.16208,122.43217,851.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,232.351,232.351,232.35
Fair Value$161.28$168.88$176.78
Upside / Downside-56.17%-54.11%-51.96%

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