Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,538.46 - $3,582.43$2,255.89
Multi-Stage$1,126.46 - $1,228.64$1,176.63
Blended Fair Value$1,716.26
Current Price$1,930.00
Upside-11.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.14%22.20%28.6824.0618.789.3019.412.645.774.354.353.85
YoY Growth--19.20%28.12%101.94%-52.09%635.23%-54.25%32.64%0.00%12.99%-0.35%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.83%0.65%0.61%2.16%0.33%0.64%0.71%0.84%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,064,186.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,416,401.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,647,785.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)612,837.20383,023.25229,813.95
Cash Retained (M)1,647,785.001,647,785.001,647,785.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-612,837.20-383,023.25-229,813.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,034,947.801,264,761.751,417,971.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41,524.5041,524.5041,524.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share24.9230.4634.15
LTM Dividend per Share34.1134.1134.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share24.9230.4634.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend59.0364.5768.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,538.46$2,255.89$3,582.43
Upside / Downside-20.29%16.89%85.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,064,186.003,263,358.093,475,476.373,701,382.333,941,972.184,198,200.374,324,146.38
Payout Ratio46.22%54.98%63.73%72.49%81.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,416,401.001,794,178.112,215,081.952,683,122.883,202,650.423,778,380.343,999,835.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,622,418.721,637,797.091,653,175.47
Year 2 PV (M)1,811,275.811,845,775.521,880,600.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,983,959.242,040,911.582,098,943.55
Year 4 PV (M)2,141,406.482,223,758.932,308,464.14
Year 5 PV (M)2,284,507.792,394,850.372,509,416.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,932,067.2738,715,899.9340,568,004.06
Equity Value (M)46,775,635.3148,858,993.4351,018,603.95
Shares Outstanding (M)41,524.5041,524.5041,524.50
Fair Value$1,126.46$1,176.63$1,228.64
Upside / Downside-41.63%-39.03%-36.34%

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