Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Asahimas Flat Glass Tbk (AMFG.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,514.51 - $11,268.29$7,724.59
Multi-Stage$7,370.22 - $8,090.89$7,723.72
Blended Fair Value$7,724.15
Current Price$3,380.00
Upside128.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.60%-0.03%79.7581.1879.750.000.0030.0030.0080.0080.0080.00
YoY Growth---1.76%1.79%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-62.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.34%1.40%1.55%0.00%0.00%1.20%0.53%1.47%1.18%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138,641.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34,828.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)103,813.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,728.2017,330.1310,398.08
Cash Retained (M)103,813.00103,813.00103,813.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,728.20-17,330.13-10,398.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)76,084.8086,482.8893,414.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)434.00434.00434.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share175.31199.27215.24
LTM Dividend per Share80.2580.2580.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share175.31199.27215.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend255.56279.52295.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.01%3.01%4.01%
Fair Value$5,514.51$7,724.59$11,268.29
Upside / Downside63.15%128.54%233.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138,641.00142,814.89147,114.43151,543.41156,105.74160,805.41165,629.57
Payout Ratio25.12%38.10%51.07%64.05%77.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34,828.0054,407.9075,135.1697,061.13120,239.19144,724.87153,207.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.01%3.01%4.01%
Year 1 PV (M)50,478.4550,973.2951,468.12
Year 2 PV (M)64,674.2565,948.4567,235.09
Year 3 PV (M)77,513.5479,815.5382,162.66
Year 4 PV (M)89,088.6592,633.6696,283.44
Year 5 PV (M)99,486.36104,459.19109,628.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,817,433.972,958,263.313,104,668.66
Equity Value (M)3,198,675.223,352,093.433,511,446.87
Shares Outstanding (M)434.00434.00434.00
Fair Value$7,370.22$7,723.72$8,090.89
Upside / Downside118.05%128.51%139.38%

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