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Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. (AJRD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.63 - $25.58$18.49
Multi-Stage$18.86 - $20.73$19.77
Blended Fair Value$19.13
Current Price$56.17
Upside-65.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.035.220.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%13.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.809.255.55
Cash Retained (M)72.0072.0072.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.80-9.25-5.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.2062.7566.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)82.0882.0882.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.790.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate1.57%2.57%3.57%
Fair Value$13.63$18.49$25.58
Upside / Downside-75.74%-67.09%-54.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.0075.9177.8679.8681.9284.0386.55
Payout Ratio2.70%20.16%37.62%55.08%72.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.0015.3029.2943.9959.4375.6380.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate1.57%2.57%3.57%
Year 1 PV (M)14.1714.3114.45
Year 2 PV (M)25.1125.6126.11
Year 3 PV (M)34.9235.9637.02
Year 4 PV (M)43.6745.4247.21
Year 5 PV (M)51.4654.0456.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,378.421,447.621,519.57
Equity Value (M)1,547.741,622.951,701.09
Shares Outstanding (M)82.0882.0882.08
Fair Value$18.86$19.77$20.73
Upside / Downside-66.43%-64.80%-63.10%

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