Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $25.02 - $33.72 | $29.48 |
| Multi-Stage | $48.86 - $53.88 | $51.32 |
| Blended Fair Value | $40.40 | |
| Current Price | $78.54 | |
| Upside | -48.56% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -2.10% | 3.48% | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 1.86 | 1.90 | 1.96 | 2.29 | 1.72 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.50% | 1.53% | -9.33% | -1.81% | -0.99% | -2.11% | -2.90% | -14.58% | 33.46% | 44.38% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.93% | 2.15% | 3.26% | 2.88% | 3.99% | 7.68% | 4.32% | 3.60% | 3.67% | 3.18% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,259.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 978.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,281.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 651.80 | 407.38 | 244.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,281.00 | 2,281.00 | 2,281.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -651.80 | -407.38 | -244.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,629.20 | 1,873.63 | 2,036.58 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 598.36 | 598.36 | 598.36 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.72 | 3.13 | 3.40 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.72 | 3.13 | 3.40 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.36 | 4.77 | 5.04 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.08% | -6.08% | -5.08% |
| Fair Value | $25.02 | $29.48 | $33.72 |
| Upside / Downside | -68.15% | -62.47% | -57.07% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,259.00 | 3,060.69 | 2,874.45 | 2,699.55 | 2,535.28 | 2,381.01 | 2,452.44 |
| Payout Ratio | 30.01% | 42.01% | 54.01% | 66.00% | 78.00% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 978.00 | 1,285.72 | 1,552.36 | 1,781.80 | 1,977.57 | 2,142.91 | 2,268.51 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.08% | -6.08% | -5.08% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,165.95 | 1,178.50 | 1,191.05 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,276.62 | 1,304.25 | 1,332.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,328.80 | 1,372.17 | 1,416.47 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,337.42 | 1,395.93 | 1,456.34 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,314.24 | 1,386.50 | 1,461.91 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,815.15 | 24,069.61 | 25,378.64 |
| Equity Value (M) | 29,238.18 | 30,706.95 | 32,236.58 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 598.36 | 598.36 | 598.36 |
| Fair Value | $48.86 | $51.32 | $53.88 |
| Upside / Downside | -37.78% | -34.66% | -31.40% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |