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Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.81 - $8.41$6.34
Multi-Stage$9.22 - $10.13$9.66
Blended Fair Value$8.00
Current Price$5.26
Upside52.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.57%6.08%0.240.240.240.230.210.210.200.170.150.14
YoY Growth--0.25%0.26%1.53%11.34%-0.11%7.01%16.55%10.97%7.67%6.64%
Dividend Yield--4.54%6.06%5.79%4.00%2.21%2.39%1.42%0.99%1.39%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.212.011.20
Cash Retained (M)5.645.645.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.21-2.01-1.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.433.634.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.6143.6143.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate0.13%1.13%2.13%
Fair Value$4.81$6.34$8.41
Upside / Downside-8.63%20.60%59.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.0416.2216.4116.5916.7816.9717.48
Payout Ratio64.87%69.90%74.92%79.95%84.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4111.3412.2913.2614.2615.2716.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate0.13%1.13%2.13%
Year 1 PV (M)10.5710.6710.78
Year 2 PV (M)10.6710.8911.10
Year 3 PV (M)10.7311.0611.39
Year 4 PV (M)10.7511.1811.63
Year 5 PV (M)10.7311.2711.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)348.62366.38384.85
Equity Value (M)402.06421.45441.60
Shares Outstanding (M)43.6143.6143.61
Fair Value$9.22$9.66$10.13
Upside / Downside75.27%83.72%92.51%

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