Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Admie Holding S.A. (ADMIE.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.08 - $6.34$5.13
Multi-Stage$9.20 - $10.14$9.66
Blended Fair Value$7.39
Current Price$3.17
Upside133.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.55%11.99%0.200.050.050.080.090.070.020.000.060.12
YoY Growth--336.70%-14.56%-34.07%-13.23%40.40%212.27%0.00%-100.00%-49.20%84.07%
Dividend Yield--6.88%2.07%3.05%3.63%3.41%3.52%1.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5715.989.59
Cash Retained (M)114.35114.35114.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.57-15.98-9.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.7898.37104.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)294.57294.57294.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.08$5.13$6.34
Upside / Downside28.81%61.73%99.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.85126.57125.30124.05122.81121.58125.23
Payout Ratio10.56%26.45%42.34%58.22%74.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.5033.4753.0572.2391.02109.42115.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)31.1631.4831.80
Year 2 PV (M)45.9746.9247.87
Year 3 PV (M)58.2760.0761.91
Year 4 PV (M)68.3671.1974.11
Year 5 PV (M)76.5180.4984.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,429.732,556.252,687.99
Equity Value (M)2,710.012,846.422,988.33
Shares Outstanding (M)294.57294.57294.57
Fair Value$9.20$9.66$10.14
Upside / Downside190.22%204.83%220.02%

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