Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aumann AG (AAG.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.26 - $41.14$28.32
Multi-Stage$28.50 - $31.31$29.88
Blended Fair Value$29.10
Current Price$12.82
Upside126.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.22%-1.97%0.210.110.110.000.000.220.220.330.330.18
YoY Growth--92.55%-2.30%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-32.22%0.00%80.00%-28.57%
Dividend Yield--1.76%0.62%0.74%0.00%0.00%2.99%0.77%0.64%0.61%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.252.031.22
Cash Retained (M)13.4113.4113.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.25-2.03-1.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.1611.3812.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.7013.7013.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.830.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.830.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.951.041.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Fair Value$20.26$28.32$41.14
Upside / Downside58.04%120.88%220.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.2516.7017.1717.6418.1318.6319.19
Payout Ratio17.47%31.98%46.48%60.99%75.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.845.347.9810.7613.6916.7717.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Year 1 PV (M)4.965.015.06
Year 2 PV (M)6.897.037.17
Year 3 PV (M)8.648.909.16
Year 4 PV (M)10.2210.6211.04
Year 5 PV (M)11.6312.2212.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)347.95365.39383.51
Equity Value (M)390.30409.17428.77
Shares Outstanding (M)13.7013.7013.70
Fair Value$28.50$29.88$31.31
Upside / Downside122.30%133.05%144.21%

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