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Definitive Analysis

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MISUMI Group Inc. (9962.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,604.51 - $23,401.54$21,930.67
Multi-Stage$3,602.04 - $3,943.17$3,769.47
Blended Fair Value$12,850.07
Current Price$2,306.50
Upside457.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.97%11.27%35.1225.6833.6328.4413.3719.0921.9420.9815.6413.40
YoY Growth--36.77%-23.65%18.26%112.65%-29.94%-13.01%4.58%34.17%16.69%11.06%
Dividend Yield--1.82%0.93%1.17%0.99%0.36%0.71%0.78%0.65%0.61%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,345.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,885.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,460.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,469.004,043.132,425.88
Cash Retained (M)20,460.0020,460.0020,460.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,469.00-4,043.13-2,425.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,991.0016,416.8818,034.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)274.88274.88274.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share50.9059.7265.61
LTM Dividend per Share43.2443.2443.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share50.9059.7265.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend94.14102.96108.84
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11,604.51$21,930.67$23,401.54
Upside / Downside403.12%850.82%914.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,345.0034,447.4336,686.5139,071.1341,610.7544,315.4545,644.92
Payout Ratio36.74%47.40%58.05%68.70%79.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,885.0016,326.5621,295.3026,841.0033,017.6739,883.9142,221.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15,206.7415,350.8815,495.02
Year 2 PV (M)18,474.2618,826.1419,181.34
Year 3 PV (M)21,688.2022,310.7922,945.19
Year 4 PV (M)24,849.2325,804.8626,787.79
Year 5 PV (M)27,957.9829,308.3630,710.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)881,950.52924,549.06968,777.94
Equity Value (M)990,126.931,036,150.091,083,897.71
Shares Outstanding (M)274.88274.88274.88
Fair Value$3,602.04$3,769.47$3,943.17
Upside / Downside56.17%63.43%70.96%

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