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JiaXing Gas Group Co., Ltd. (9908.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.90 - $81.14$56.67
Multi-Stage$63.72 - $69.97$66.79
Blended Fair Value$61.73
Current Price$7.11
Upside768.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS3.39%0.00%0.600.400.150.370.000.510.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth--50.00%166.66%-59.46%0.00%-100.00%600.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.40%5.74%2.00%3.79%0.00%5.15%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.5242.8325.70
Cash Retained (M)202.35202.35202.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.52-42.83-25.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.83159.53176.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.84137.84137.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.161.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.161.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.172.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Fair Value$40.90$56.67$81.14
Upside / Downside475.19%696.98%1,041.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342.61350.81359.20367.79376.59385.60397.17
Payout Ratio40.94%50.75%60.56%70.38%80.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.26178.04217.54258.83301.98347.04367.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Year 1 PV (M)165.81167.45169.08
Year 2 PV (M)188.70192.44196.22
Year 3 PV (M)209.10215.35221.72
Year 4 PV (M)227.21236.31245.68
Year 5 PV (M)243.19255.42268.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,749.238,138.988,544.26
Equity Value (M)8,783.259,205.969,645.11
Shares Outstanding (M)137.84137.84137.84
Fair Value$63.72$66.79$69.97
Upside / Downside796.18%839.31%884.12%

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