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Definitive Analysis

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NSW Inc. (9739.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,184.43 - $47,607.32$15,193.50
Multi-Stage$6,124.51 - $6,707.64$6,410.67
Blended Fair Value$10,802.08
Current Price$2,714.00
Upside298.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.97%20.28%94.9060.0054.9039.9334.9032.4227.4519.9324.9722.49
YoY Growth--58.17%9.29%37.48%14.42%7.66%18.09%37.71%-20.17%11.02%50.15%
Dividend Yield--3.50%1.78%2.25%1.71%1.54%1.53%1.01%0.91%1.35%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,605.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,268.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,337.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)721.00450.63270.38
Cash Retained (M)2,337.002,337.002,337.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-721.00-450.63-270.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,616.001,886.382,066.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.9014.9014.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share108.46126.61138.71
LTM Dividend per Share85.1085.1085.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share108.46126.61138.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend193.56211.71223.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate4.36%5.36%6.36%
Fair Value$8,184.43$15,193.50$47,607.32
Upside / Downside201.56%459.82%1,654.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,605.003,798.114,001.574,215.934,441.774,679.704,820.09
Payout Ratio35.17%46.14%57.10%68.07%79.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,268.001,752.402,285.062,869.753,510.534,211.734,458.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate4.36%5.36%6.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,624.871,640.441,656.01
Year 2 PV (M)1,964.582,002.412,040.60
Year 3 PV (M)2,287.712,354.112,421.78
Year 4 PV (M)2,594.872,695.772,799.59
Year 5 PV (M)2,886.623,027.603,174.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,892.8283,794.7687,847.68
Equity Value (M)91,251.4895,515.1099,939.70
Shares Outstanding (M)14.9014.9014.90
Fair Value$6,124.51$6,410.67$6,707.64
Upside / Downside125.66%136.21%147.15%

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