Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hikari Tsushin, Inc. (9435.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64,383.40 - $231,178.80$107,048.75
Multi-Stage$41,167.91 - $44,991.14$43,044.77
Blended Fair Value$75,046.76
Current Price$42,560.00
Upside76.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.11%15.19%687.68590.66540.85497.14461.80406.17353.40302.09233.46185.04
YoY Growth--16.43%9.21%8.79%7.65%13.70%14.93%16.99%29.40%26.17%10.64%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.97%2.63%3.57%2.37%1.65%1.49%1.55%1.98%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99,794.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29,166.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)70,628.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19,958.8012,474.257,484.55
Cash Retained (M)70,628.0070,628.0070,628.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-19,958.80-12,474.25-7,484.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)50,669.2058,153.7563,143.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.9543.9543.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,152.951,323.261,436.79
LTM Dividend per Share663.66663.66663.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,152.951,323.261,436.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,816.601,986.912,100.45
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64,383.40$107,048.75$231,178.80
Upside / Downside51.28%151.52%443.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99,794.00106,280.61113,188.85120,546.12128,381.62136,726.43140,828.22
Payout Ratio29.23%41.38%53.54%65.69%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29,166.0043,979.9460,596.4779,187.3399,938.98123,053.79130,266.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40,162.5240,543.2140,923.89
Year 2 PV (M)50,533.5651,496.0852,467.69
Year 3 PV (M)60,305.1762,036.3263,800.28
Year 4 PV (M)69,502.4472,175.3174,924.54
Year 5 PV (M)78,149.5481,924.1985,843.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,510,573.611,583,534.881,659,288.55
Equity Value (M)1,809,226.841,891,709.981,977,248.25
Shares Outstanding (M)43.9543.9543.95
Fair Value$41,167.91$43,044.77$44,991.14
Upside / Downside-3.27%1.14%5.71%

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