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NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$246,491.61 - $562,728.60$359,060.97
Multi-Stage$322,476.34 - $353,519.83$337,705.87
Blended Fair Value$348,383.42
Current Price$134,200.00
Upside159.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.24%7.68%6,001.315,760.326,714.285,269.205,105.885,115.754,710.914,557.994,305.193,448.54
YoY Growth--4.18%-14.21%27.43%3.20%-0.19%8.59%3.35%5.87%24.84%20.45%
Dividend Yield--5.50%4.62%4.61%3.49%4.45%3.16%4.04%4.54%3.19%2.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,173.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,014.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,159.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,634.782,271.741,363.04
Cash Retained (M)7,159.887,159.887,159.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,634.78-2,271.74-1,363.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,525.114,888.155,796.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.461.461.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,414.783,348.493,970.97
LTM Dividend per Share7,544.847,544.847,544.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,414.783,348.493,970.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend9,959.6210,893.3411,515.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate2.35%3.35%4.35%
Fair Value$246,491.61$359,060.97$562,728.60
Upside / Downside83.67%167.56%319.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,173.8918,782.1519,410.7620,060.4220,731.8221,425.6922,068.46
Payout Ratio60.60%66.48%72.36%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,014.0012,486.8914,046.0315,695.5517,439.7519,283.1220,413.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate2.35%3.35%4.35%
Year 1 PV (M)11,613.2611,726.7311,840.20
Year 2 PV (M)12,149.3612,387.9412,628.83
Year 3 PV (M)12,626.3113,000.0413,381.07
Year 4 PV (M)13,047.8813,565.3514,098.06
Year 5 PV (M)13,417.6714,086.1014,780.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)407,898.09428,218.56449,340.93
Equity Value (M)470,752.58492,984.72516,070.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1.461.461.46
Fair Value$322,476.34$337,705.87$353,519.83
Upside / Downside140.30%151.64%163.43%

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