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Japan Real Estate Investment Corporation (8952.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$153,584.92 - $256,564.94$198,901.37
Multi-Stage$265,067.18 - $290,700.67$277,639.61
Blended Fair Value$238,270.49
Current Price$124,500.00
Upside91.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.006,053.845,637.935,537.995,495.190.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%7.38%1.80%0.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%5.30%4.84%4.64%4.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74,145.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52,022.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,122.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,829.039,268.155,560.89
Cash Retained (M)22,122.7522,122.7522,122.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,829.03-9,268.15-5,560.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,293.7212,854.6116,561.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.695.695.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,281.512,258.572,909.93
LTM Dividend per Share9,140.399,140.399,140.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,281.512,258.572,909.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,421.9011,398.9512,050.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Fair Value$153,584.92$198,901.37$256,564.94
Upside / Downside23.36%59.76%106.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74,145.1675,063.0675,992.3276,933.0977,885.5078,849.7081,215.19
Payout Ratio70.16%74.13%78.10%82.07%86.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52,022.4155,644.5059,348.2963,135.2767,006.9170,964.7375,124.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Year 1 PV (M)51,471.3451,984.8352,498.32
Year 2 PV (M)50,780.2351,798.4852,826.84
Year 3 PV (M)49,969.1251,479.6053,020.22
Year 4 PV (M)49,056.0451,043.1153,089.95
Year 5 PV (M)48,057.2350,502.6953,046.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,259,293.271,323,374.331,390,037.94
Equity Value (M)1,508,627.221,580,183.051,654,519.98
Shares Outstanding (M)5.695.695.69
Fair Value$265,067.18$277,639.61$290,700.67
Upside / Downside112.91%123.00%133.49%

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