Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Building Fund Incorporation (8951.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$257,879.13 - $905,966.20$426,473.26
Multi-Stage$222,679.16 - $243,712.95$233,001.56
Blended Fair Value$329,737.41
Current Price$132,900.00
Upside148.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.27%6.15%4,915.854,599.654,996.604,406.943,651.503,460.693,157.092,987.042,727.872,568.04
YoY Growth--6.87%-7.94%13.38%20.69%5.51%9.62%5.69%9.50%6.22%-5.11%
Dividend Yield--4.02%3.76%4.25%3.29%3.05%2.18%2.28%2.71%2.11%2.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79,312.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41,809.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)37,503.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,862.489,914.055,948.43
Cash Retained (M)37,503.4037,503.4037,503.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,862.48-9,914.05-5,948.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)21,640.9227,589.3531,554.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.508.508.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,544.503,243.903,710.17
LTM Dividend per Share4,915.824,915.824,915.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,544.503,243.903,710.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend7,460.328,159.728,625.99
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate4.03%5.03%6.03%
Fair Value$257,879.13$426,473.26$905,966.20
Upside / Downside94.04%220.90%581.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79,312.4083,302.1487,492.5891,893.8296,516.46101,371.63104,412.78
Payout Ratio52.71%60.17%67.63%75.09%82.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41,809.0050,124.1259,170.0168,999.1579,667.4591,234.4796,581.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate4.03%5.03%6.03%
Year 1 PV (M)46,381.6346,827.4847,273.33
Year 2 PV (M)50,664.0951,642.7952,630.86
Year 3 PV (M)54,669.0656,260.8057,883.13
Year 4 PV (M)58,408.7860,687.2163,031.65
Year 5 PV (M)61,894.9964,927.5868,077.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,621,865.201,701,329.801,783,879.06
Equity Value (M)1,893,883.761,981,675.662,072,775.93
Shares Outstanding (M)8.508.508.50
Fair Value$222,679.16$233,001.56$243,712.95
Upside / Downside67.55%75.32%83.38%

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