Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tokyo Rakutenchi Co.,Ltd. (8842.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,153.06 - $1,774.87$1,442.43
Multi-Stage$2,562.96 - $2,815.76$2,686.90
Blended Fair Value$2,064.67
Current Price$6,700.00
Upside-69.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.69%5.20%99.7560.0659.9979.7759.9760.0379.8159.9859.8960.04
YoY Growth--66.08%0.12%-24.81%33.03%-0.10%-24.79%33.07%0.15%-0.25%-0.05%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.39%1.52%1.87%1.48%1.19%1.45%1.14%1.24%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)754.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)597.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)156.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.8194.2556.55
Cash Retained (M)156.22156.22156.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.81-94.25-56.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.4161.9799.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.995.995.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.9010.3416.63
LTM Dividend per Share99.7599.7599.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.9010.3416.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.65110.09116.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-1.88%-0.88%0.12%
Fair Value$1,153.06$1,442.43$1,774.87
Upside / Downside-82.79%-78.47%-73.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)754.03747.38740.78734.25727.77721.34742.98
Payout Ratio79.28%81.43%83.57%85.71%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)597.81608.56619.07629.34639.39649.21687.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-1.88%-0.88%0.12%
Year 1 PV (M)564.69570.44576.20
Year 2 PV (M)533.02543.94554.98
Year 3 PV (M)502.81518.34534.19
Year 4 PV (M)474.01493.63513.85
Year 5 PV (M)446.59469.82494.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,839.5413,507.3114,202.58
Equity Value (M)15,360.6516,103.4816,875.79
Shares Outstanding (M)5.995.995.99
Fair Value$2,562.96$2,686.90$2,815.76
Upside / Downside-61.75%-59.90%-57.97%

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